ARCHIVE of NWS WARNING for Beeville AREA

ARCHIVE of NWS WARNING for Beeville AREA
for "history" we are saving some of the weather statements

000 WTNT45 KNHC 250235 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002 THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN NO EVIDENCE THAT ISIDORE IS REDEVELOPING
AN INNER CORE...I.E. STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. IN FACT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVES...AND THE NOAA G-IV JET SHOW THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED SOME 120 N MI OR MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE INNER CORE IS RE-ESTABLISHED. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE SHELF WATERS NORTH OF YUCATAN...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF WARM WATER...HIGH HEAT CONTENT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS LOOKED QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW SHOWS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPINGING ON THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STORM CIRCULATION. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA JET INDICATED DRY AIR IN THE AREA...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THIS MAY BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL.THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST...ISIDORE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE STEERED IN A GENERALLY NORTHWARD DIRECTION UNTIL LANDFALL. THIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH THEMSELVES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED... UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL. THEN...ISIDORE...OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT...SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 23.5N 89.7W 50 KTS 12HR VT 25/1200Z 25.0N 90.0W 55 KTS 24HR VT 26/0000Z 27.2N 90.2W 65 KTS 36HR VT 26/1200Z 29.7N 90.2W 60 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 27/0000Z 33.0N 89.0W 30 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 28/0000Z 41.0N 76.0W 25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

000 WTNT45 KNHC 240835 TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MERIDA MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF ISIDORE IS ABOUT TO MOVE BACK OVER WATER...JUST NORTH OF THAT SITE. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKING THE AREA OVER WATER AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MEASURED 5000-FOOT FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS OF 76 KNOTS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED 44 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THEREFORE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. ISIDORE HAS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION AND BECAUSE THE CYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE...THE STRONG WINDS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. BOTH...THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR RESTRENGHTENING. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT KNOWN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE INNER CORE TO RECOVER FROM ALL THE TIME THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN OVER LAND. PAST EXPERIENCE WITH OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES SUGGESTS THAT IT WOULD TAKE ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED BUT IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT ISIDORE REGAINS ITS FORMER INTENSITY. AS GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND IS BEGINING TO STEER ISODORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 6 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEARING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXCICO WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 21.3N 89.7W 45 KTS 12HR VT 24/1800Z 22.1N 90.2W 55 KTS 24HR VT 25/0600Z 24.0N 91.0W 65 KTS 36HR VT 25/1800Z 26.2N 91.5W 75 KTS 48HR VT 26/0600Z 28.5N 91.5W 80 KTS 72HR VT 27/0600Z 33.0N 89.5W 30 KTS...INLAND

000 WTNT45 KNHC 232033 TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 23 2002ISIDORE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST 6 HR... WITH WIDELY SCATTERED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION OCCURRING IN BANDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OVER THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE. THE EXACT INTENSITY AND CENTRAL PRESSURE ARE A LITTLE IFFY AS THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTRAL CORE OR IN THE OFFSHORE BANDS. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING OVER LAND. ISIDORE IS LIKELY IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A LOOP...AS THE STORM HAS NUDGED NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HR. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST AND DEVELOPING RIDGING TO THE EAST SHOULD STEER THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW FORECASTING ISIDORE TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST AT 72 HR AND THE GFDL MOVING IT ONSHORE IN ABOUT 60 HR. AS NOTED 6 HR AGO... THE GFDL IS LIKELY TOO FAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPEEDWISE WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND THE TRACK MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED EASTWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. ISIDORE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE OVER LAND. AFTER THAT... UPPER-LEVEL AND SEA SURFACE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR IS THE INTERNAL DISORGANIZATION OF THE STORM...AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME FOR ISIDORE TO RE-FORM A TIGHT CENTRAL CORE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR SLOW RE-INTENSIFICATION UNTIL ISIDORE REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS AND FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. LOOKING A LITTLE INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...ISIDORE COULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTERESTS IN THAT REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 20.3N 89.4W 45 KTS...INLAND 12HR VT 24/0600Z 21.1N 90.1W 35 KTS...INLAND 24HR VT 24/1800Z 22.3N 90.8W 40 KTS...OVER WATER 36HR VT 25/0600Z 23.6N 91.3W 50 KTS 48HR VT 25/1800Z 25.1N 91.8W 60 KTS 72HR VT 26/1800Z 28.5N 92.5W 85 KTS

000 WTNT45 KNHC 230828 TCDAT5 HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 23 2002 A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TRACKING THE CENTER OVER LAND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 210/04. THE GUIDANCE INSISTS ON A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP-LAYER-MEAN LOW EAST OF FLORIDA BEING REPLACED BY A RIDGE TO DRIVE ISIDORE NORTHWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL PREVIOUSLY KNOWN AS THE AVIATION MODEL. THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A POTENTIAL THREAT IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHCENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST. THE LATEST SURFACE PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AIRCRAFT IS 952 MB WHILE THE MAX WIND REPORTED AT 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL IS 76 KNOTS NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON THIS
DATA. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR 12 MORE HOURS WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND. THEN STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE GULF WATERS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND IF THE PRESSURE STAYS IN THE 950 RANGE...THIS COULD HASTEN THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. HOW STRONG WILL ISIDORE GET? I DO NOT KNOW. THE SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL CALLS FOR 99 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 100 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS. THIS IS LESS THAN THE 125 KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ...BUT THAT VALUE WAS ORIGINALLY BASED ON THE CENTER REMAINING OVER WATER. AND A FORECAST OF 100 KNOTS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF 125 KNOTS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 20.4N 89.8W 65 KTS 12HR VT 23/1800Z 20.3N 90.6W 60 KTS 24HR VT 24/0600Z 21.2N 91.7W 75 KTS 36HR VT 24/1800Z 22.2N 92.2W 90 KTS 48HR VT 25/0600Z 23.1N 92.6W 100 KTS 72HR VT 26/0600Z 26.0N 93.5W 100 KTS

000 WTNT45 KNHC 222043 TCDAT5 HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002 AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 935 MB...UP 1 MB FROM 7 HOURS AGO. AGAIN...THIS PRESSURE WOULD GENERALLY
CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 128 KT AND CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY. ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES CONTINUE TO REPORT A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5...OR 127 KT. A DROPSONDE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN COAST CAME IN WITH 108 KT. ONE COULD ARGUE THAT SINCE THIS WAS AN OFFSHORE WIND THAT STRONGER WINDS TO CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH COULD EXIST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OVER THE WATER. HOWEVER...THE BACKGROUND PRESSURE IS UNUSALLY LOWER THAN NORMAL...SO THE TYPICAL PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP MAY NOT APPLY TO ISIDORE THE SAME WAY IT DID NOT APPLY TO HURRICANE FLOYD IN 1999. RECON IS STILL INVESTIGATING ISIDORE AND THEY ARE SCHEDULED TO PUNCH THROUGH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL DURING THE HOUR TO SEE IF STRONGER WINDS EXIST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/07. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AFTER 48 HOURS. ISIDORE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY NARROW AND WEAK...5870 METERS AT 500 MB...MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT THE MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL SHOWED UP QUITE NICELY TODAY IN THE 12Z UPEPR-AIR DATA AS A SMALL CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A 30-35 KT SPEED MAX ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO DIG THE LOW SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO AND EFFECTIVELY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY ERODE THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ISIDORE TO GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE AFTER ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD AT A FASTER SPEED OF AROUND 10 KT BY 72 HOURS. BOTH THE AVN AND GFDL MODELS HAVE ABANDONED THEIR PREVIOUSLY CONSISTENT SHARP SOUTHWEST MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN YUCATAN AND DEEP INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QUICKLY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 48 HOURS. THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GRADUALLY TURN ISIDORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN IS TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER AFTER THAT. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE AVN-AVN ENSEMBLE-UKMET-GFDL CONSENSUS. IT IS NOTEWORHTY TO MENTION THAT THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A MORE NORTHWARD TURN FOR THE LAST 2 DAYS...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST AT THIS TIME. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LOW SHEAR AND ABUNDANCE OF WARM GULF WATER UP TO ABOUT 28N LATITUDE. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS ISIDORE TO 131 KT IN 48 HOURS...WITH ONLY VERY SLOW WEAKENING AFTER THAT. NOTE...THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SICNE ISIDORE IS ALREADY A LARGER THAN AVERAGE ATLANTIC HURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO GROW EVEN LARGER BY 72 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 21.5N 89.2W 110 KTS 12HR VT 23/0600Z 21.4N 90.2W 110 KTS 24HR VT 23/1800Z 21.4N 91.3W 110 KTS 36HR VT 24/0600Z 21.5N 92.0W 115 KTS 48HR VT 24/1800Z 22.3N 92.7W 125 KTS 72HR VT 25/1800Z 25.0N 93.0W 125 KTS

000 WTNT45 KNHC 221417 TCDAT5 HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 934 MB A FEW HOURS AGO...WHICH WOULD GENERALLY CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 128 KT. ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES ALSO REPORTED A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5...OR 127 KT. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND RECORDED THUS FAR HAS ONLY BEEN 122 KT WHICH CONVERTS TO A SURFACE WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 110 KT...EVEN THOUGH DROPSONDE WINDS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 133 KT JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISIDORE IS PROBABLY A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...I AM CONSTRAINED TO HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 110 KT UNTIL HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE MEASURED BY SUBSEQUENT RECON FLIGHTS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. ISIDORE HAS BEEN WOBBLING ABOUT A MEAN WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THE PAST 12 HOURS...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING TROPICAL CYCLONES. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A GENERAL WEST OR SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT WITH SOME MODELS TAKING ISIDORE NORTHWARD WHILE OTHERS TAKE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE AVN AND THE AVN ENSEMBLE MEAN MODELS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. AS LONG AS ISIDORE DOES NOT MOVE INLAND OVER YUCATAN...SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LOW SHEAR AND ABUNDANCE OF WARM GULF WATER. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS ISIDORE TO 127 KT IN 48 HOURS AND 130 KT IN 60 HOURS. NOTE THAT WITH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONES...THERE IS NO WAY TO FORECAST EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WITH ANY ACCURACY BEYOND ABOUT 12 HOURS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 21.8N 88.5W 110 KTS 12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.6N 89.6W 115 KTS 24HR VT 23/1200Z 21.3N 90.5W 120 KTS 36HR VT 24/0000Z 21.3N 91.2W 120 KTS 48HR VT 24/1200Z 21.5N 92.0W 125 KTS 72HR VT 25/1200Z 22.5N 93.0W 125 KTS

000 WTNT75 KNHC 220823 SPFAT5 HURRICANE ISIDORE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2002 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ISIDORE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT WED SEP 25 2002 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 21.5N 90.1W 48 X X X 48 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 21.2N 90.8W 36 X X X 36 GALVESTON TX X X X 2 2 21.2N 91.4W 27 1 1 1 30 FREEPORT TX X X X 2 2 MUAN 219N 850W X X 1 2 3 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 2 2 MMCZ 205N 869W 4 X 1 4 9 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 2 2 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 1 3 4 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 5 5 MMSO 238N 982W X X X 7 7 GULF 28N 89W X X X 3 3 MMTM 222N 979W X X 1 8 9 GULF 28N 91W X X X 4 4 MMTX 210N 974W X X 3 7 10 GULF 28N 93W X X X 4 4 MMVR 192N 961W X 1 4 6 11 GULF 28N 95W X X X 4 4 MMFR 185N 926W 2 5 3 4 14 GULF 27N 96W X X X 5 5 MMMD 210N 897W 42 X X 1 43 GULF 25N 96W X X 1 8 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENTA IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON C FROM 1PM MON TO 1AM TUE D FROM 1AM TUE TO 1AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER LAWRENCE

000 WTNT61 KNHC 220928 TCUAT BULLETIN HURRICANE ISIDORE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2002THIS IS TO UPDATE THE HURRICANE WARNINGS ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT 5 AM CDT...1000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PROGRESO TO CAMPECHE. IN SUMMARY...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM TULUM TO CAMPECHE. FORECASTER LAWRENCE

000 WTNT35 KNHC 220844 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISIDORE ADVISORY NUMBER 2NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2002...ISIDORE MOVES NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH 125 MPH WINDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESSO...INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...NORTHWEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHWEST TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISIDORE IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MIGHT MOVE ONSHORE...BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE ONSHORE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 936 MB...27.64 INCHES. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES. STORM SURGE FLOODING COULD INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IF THE CENTER MOVES ONSHORE. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...22.0 N... 87.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 936 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER LAWRENCE

000 WTNT45 KNHC 220821 TCDAT5 HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/06 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOUR MOTION. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT MORE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION THAN THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THERE IS A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISIDORE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THAT MIGHT EXPLAIN THE MORE SOUTHWARD MOTION. IN ANY CASE...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE CENTER SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO AN EROSION OF THE RIDGE BY THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BRINGS THE CENTER TO WITHIN 20 N MI OF THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN COAST IN 24 HOURS. EXCEPT FOR THE NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...I WOULD MOVE THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN PENINSULA. A RECON DROP IN THE CENTER GAVE 936 MB AT 07Z. THIS IS ABOUT 11 MB DROP IN SIX HOURS. HOWEVER WIND MEASUREMENTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT DO NOT SHOW THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM OUR PREVIOUS ADVISORY VALUE OF 110 KNOTS. IN FACT GPS DROPS FROM THE AIRCRAFT SO FAR HAVE A HARD TIME SUPPORTING 110 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NEAR 110 KNOTS IN A NARROW LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE. PERHAPS THE SURFACE WINDS WILL SHORTLY RESPOND TO THE PRESSURE FALL. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SMALL THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE IS IMPRESSIVELY LARGE...COLD AND SYMMETRIC. THE OFFICIAL 12 HOUR FORECAST IS FOR 115 KNOTS...NOT AS HIGH AS THE 125 KNOTS ALLOWED BY THE STANDARD PRESSURE WIND RELATIONSHIP FOR 937 MB. ON THE OTHER HAND IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CURRENT INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTHENING. THERE IS ALSO THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM LAND. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 22.0N 87.9W 110 KTS 12HR VT 22/1800Z 21.8N 88.9W 115 KTS 24HR VT 23/0600Z 21.5N 90.1W 120 KTS 36HR VT 23/1800Z 21.2N 90.8W 120 KTS 48HR VT 24/0600Z 21.2N 91.4W 125 KTS 72HR VT 25/0600Z 22.0N 92.5W 125 KT

000 WTNT45 KNHC 212105 TCDAT5 HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002 AIR FORCE RECON DATA INDICATE MAJOR HURRICANE ISIDORE HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED 21 MB IN THE PAST 13 HOURS. A PRESSURE OF 946 MB GENERALLY CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM WIND OF ABOUT 117 KT. HOWEVER...THE EYE IS OPEN TO THE WEST AND THERE MAY BE A LAG IN THE WIND FIELD. ALSO...DROPSONDE DATA INDICATED ABOUT 105 KT SURFACE WINDS...BUT WINDS JUST A FEW HUNDRED ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 130 KT. THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES REPORTED A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0...OR 115 KT...WHILE THE 3-HOUR OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBER WAS ALSO T6.0. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 110 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/3. RECON FIX POSITONS SINCE ABOUT 12Z INDICATE ISIDORE HAS ACTUALLY REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT RIGHT OVER SOME OF THE HOTTEST WATER IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ARE FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL TO REMAIN WEAK OR EVEN GET WEAKER. ISIDORE REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW EAST OF FLORIDA AND ONE TO THE WEST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WEAK AND NARROW LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM FLORIDA WESTWARD TO TEXAS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF THIS RIDGE...ONLY 5880 METERS AT 500 MB...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ERODE IT AND ALLOW ISIDORE TO DRIFT SLOWLY POLEWARD. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT LBAR...KEEPS ISIDORE MOVING ON A SLOW WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVN AND GFDL ARE VERY SIMILAR IN HOOKING ISIDORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS MAY BE SOME ARTIFACT OF TERRAIN INTERACTION WHICH I HAVE IGNORED FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE SINCE ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING NORTH OF ISIODRE TO PUSH THE SYSTEM TO SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW...LESS THAN 6 KT...MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE WEAK RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND ALLOW ISIDORE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. HOWEVER... THE SLOWER ISIDORE MOVES DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR NORTH AND THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT APPEARS THAT ISIDORE IS NOT GOING TO GO ANYWHERE FAST. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL REMAIN OVER VERY HOT WATER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED 21 MB IN THE PAST 13 HOURS. A TYPICAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION PERIOD. THIS TREND WOULD NORMALLY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT RADAR AND RECON DATA INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS OPEN TO THE WEST AND THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE MAY BE STARTING. AS SUCH...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD BELOW THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WHICH BRINGS ISIDORE TO 135 KT IN 36 HOURS AND 140 KT IN 60 HOURS. THIS TYPE OF INTENSIFICATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR...LESS THAN 6 KT...AND HIGH SSTS...ABOUT 30C/86F. HOWEVER...PREDICTING INTERNAL CONVECTIVE CHANGES IS NEALRY IMPOSSIBLE SO THERE COULD BE FLUCUATIONS BY AS MUCH 10 KT EITHER WAY FROM THE OFFICAL INTENSITY FORECAST. SOME COASTAL UPWELLING MAY WEAKEN THE HURRICANE SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES WEST OF 88W LONGITUDE...BUT THEN SOME RESTRENGTNENING IS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS WHEN ISIDORE IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OVER WARMER WATER. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 21.9N 86.2W 110 KTS 12HR VT 22/0600Z 21.9N 87.0W 120 KTS 24HR VT 22/1800Z 21.9N 88.0W 125 KTS 36HR VT 23/0600Z 21.9N 89.2W 125 KTS 48HR VT 23/1800Z 22.0N 90.3W 125 KTS 72HR VT 24/1800Z 22.5N 92.5W 130 KTS WGUS84 KCRP 211405 FLSCRP TXC025-283-297-311-355-409-221300- FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 905 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2002 ...RIVER FLOOD STATEMENT... THIS STATEMENT INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING RIVERS: ARANSAS RIVER...FRIO RIVER... NUECES RIVER...OSO CREEK. FOR THE NUECES RIVER AT COTULLA. LATEST STAGE: 9.3 FEET AT 5 AM SATURDAY. FLOOD STAGE: 15 FEET. BANKFULL STAGE: 9 FEET. FORECAST: THE RIVER CRESTED LAST NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE A VERY SLOW FALL ...AND WILL REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT ABOVE BANKFULL STAGE THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS. IMPACT: AT 9 FEET...THE RIVER FLOWS OVER ITS BANKS IN THE MARSHY LAND DOWNSTREAM...AND CUTS OFF AREAS OF THE FLOOD PLAIN. SOME LIVESTOCK ARE POTENTIALLY AFFECTED DOWNSTREAM. FOR THE NUECES RIVER 11 S TILDEN. LATEST STAGE: 19.8 FEET AT 5 AM SATURDAY. FLOOD STAGE: 14 FEET. BANKFULL STAGE: 11 FEET. FORECAST: MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BUT REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IMPACT: AT 20 FEET...MAJOR FLOODING BELOW COTULLA TO BELOW TILDEN OCCURS... AND CUTS OFF EXTENSIVE PORTIONS OF THE FLOOD PLAIN...REQUIRING WHOLESALE EVACUATION OF LIVESTOCK FROM THE AREA. ROADS AND BRIDGES NEAR THE RIVER FLOOD SEVERELY. HUNTING CABINS...PUMP JACKS...TANK BATTERIES...IRRIGATION PUMPS AND ANY EQUIPMENT IN LOW AREAS NEAR THE RIVER FLOOD. FOR THE NUECES RIVER NEAR THREE RIVERS. LATEST STAGE: 39.4 FEET AT 5 AM SATURDAY. FLOOD STAGE: 25 FEET. BANKFULL STAGE: 20 FEET. FORECAST: MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE A VERY SLOW FALL BUT REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IMPACT: AT 39 FEET...CULTIVATED FIELDS IN AREA ARE FLOODED. FOR THE NUECES RIVER AT MATHIS. LATEST STAGE: 32.4 FEET AT 8 AM SATURDAY. FLOOD STAGE: 25 FEET. BANKFULL STAGE: 16 FEET. FORECAST: MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE A SLOW FALL BUT REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IMPACT: AT 29.3 FEET...THIS WAS THE STAGE WHICH OCCURRED ON JUN 23 1987... WHEN A STATIONARY LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SENT SHORT WAVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS FOR 13 DAYS. RESIDENTS ON THE WEST BANK NEAR BLUNTZER CAME AND WENT BY BOAT FOR SIX WEEKS. FOR THE NUECES RIVER NEAR BLUNTZER. LATEST STAGE: 30.3 FEET AT 8 AM SATURDAY. FLOOD STAGE: 18 FEET. BANKFULL STAGE: 11 FEET. FORECAST: MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE A SLOW FALL BUT REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IMPACT: AT 31 FEET...MAJOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS ABOVE BLUNTZER TO CALALLEN...AND PRODUCES WIDESPREAD RESIDENTIAL FLOODING FOR DAYS OR WEEKS. LIVESTOCK IN THE FLOOD PLAIN ARE CUT OFF AND COULD DROWN. MANY SECONDARY AND PRIMARY ROADS AND LOW BRIDGES ARE FLOODED. FOR THE NUECES RIVER AT CALALLEN. LATEST STAGE: 10.3 FEET AT 7 AM SATURDAY. FLOOD STAGE: 7 FEET. BANKFULL STAGE: 6 FEET. FORECAST: THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE A SLOW FALL BUT REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IMPACT: AT 9.5 FEET...RESIDENTS ARE ISOLATED UPSTREAM ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIVER FOR AS MUCH AS SIX WEEKS. FOR THE FRIO RIVER AT TILDEN. LATEST STAGE: 10.8 FEET AT 8 AM SATURDAY. FLOOD STAGE: 22 FEET. BANKFULL STAGE: 12 FEET. FORECAST: NO FLOODING IS FORECASTED. THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT. FOR THE ARANSAS RIVER NR 4.4 MI NE OF SKIDMORE. LATEST STAGE: 4.5 FEET AT 7 AM SATURDAY. FLOOD STAGE: 13 FEET. BANKFULL STAGE: 7 FEET. FORECAST: THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE A SLOW FALL. THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT. FOR THE OSO CREEK NR CORPUS CHRISTI. LATEST STAGE: 13.1 FEET AT 7 AM SATURDAY. FLOOD STAGE: 20 FEET. BANKFULL STAGE: 11 FEET. FORECAST: THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE A SLOW FALL BUT REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. IMPACT: AT 11 FEET...THE FLOW IS OVER THE RIGHT AND LEFT BANKS...BUT CAUSES NO SIGNIFICANT FLOOD DAMAGE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY AFFECT CREST FORECASTS. $$ BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND STAGE FORECASTS: FLD LATEST FORECAST 6 AM LST LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME SUN MON TUE NUECES RIVER COTULLA 15 9.3 SAT 5 AM 9.1 9.0 8.9 TILDEN 14 19.8 SAT 5 AM 18.9 18.4 18.0 THREE RIVERS 25 39.4 SAT 5 AM 37.4 33.9 29.0 MATHIS 25 32.4 SAT 8 AM 31.0 30.0 30.0 BLUNTZER 18 30.3 SAT 8 AM 29.4 28.5 27.7 CALALLEN 7 10.3 SAT 7 AM 9.6 9.2 8.8 FRIO RIVER TILDEN 22 10.8 SAT 8 AM 10.5 9.7 8.9 ARANSAS RIVER 4.4 MI NE OF SKIDMORE 13 4.5 SAT 7 AM 1.6 1.6 1.6 WTNT35 KNHC 210241 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISIDORE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002 ...EYE OF ISIDORE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WINDS AND RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN CUBA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM PROGRESSO TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ISIDORE IS EMERGING OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ISIDORE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT SHOULD RESUME A TRACK BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY IN A FEW HOURS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ISIDORE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF ISIDORE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM CUBA...EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UP T0 20 TO 30 INCHES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.4 N... 84.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT...SATURDAY. FORECASTER AVILA WTNT45 KNHC 200840 TCDAT5 HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. THE CENTER CAN BE SEEN ON THE KEY WEST AND HAVANA RADARS AS WELL AS BEING TRACKED BY AIRCRAFT. THE 00Z NWS GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL SHOWS A BIT OF MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTH OF ISIDORE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CONTINUED SLOW MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD. THE AVIATION MODEL AND UKMET SHOW A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL AND NOGAPS SHOW A MUCH SLOWER WESTWARD MOTION. AFTER THAT...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO BE NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND WE WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE WITH WHETHER OR NOT THE NEXT TROUGH WILL PICK UP ISIDORE. IN ANY CASE ...ISIDORE WILL BE WITH US FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND WITH AN EVEN SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF ALMOST ALL THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. ONLY THE CANADIAN MODEL IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE LAST FIX FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE NEAR 08Z REPORTED 967 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.AND A RECENT DROPSONDE INDICATED THAT SURFACE WINDS ARE NEAR 90 KNOTS NEAR THE 12 NMI DIAMETER EYEWALL. AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL...THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS COULD BE TEMPORARILY HALTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH WESTERN CUBA. BUT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME BY 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE ARE ONLY 3 OUT OF 5 REQUIRED PARAMETERS MET FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION COMPARED TO 4 OUT OF 5 SIX HOURS AGO. ALSO THE SHIPS DIAGNOSED INITIAL VERTICAL SHEAR IS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM 14 KNOTS SIX HOURS AGO. THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS NEAR ITS POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. SO UNLESS THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS TOWARD FLORIDA ...THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE KEYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 25-KNOT RANGE AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL NOT BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING ON THIS ADVISORY. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 21.3N 83.3W 90 KTS 12HR VT 20/1800Z 22.0N 84.1W 100 KTS 24HR VT 21/0600Z 22.7N 85.2W 95 KTS 36HR VT 21/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W 100 KTS 48HR VT 22/0600Z 23.2N 86.8W 105 KTS 72HR VT 23/0600Z 23.5N 87.5W 105 KTS WGUS84 KCRP 200333 FLSCRP TXC283-297-311-355-409-210300- FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1030 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2002 ...RIVER FLOOD STATEMENT... THIS STATEMENT INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING RIVERS: FRIO RIVER...NUECES RIVER...OSO CREEK. FOR THE NUECES RIVER AT COTULLA. LATEST STAGE: 9.2 FEET AT 9 PM THURSDAY. FLOOD STAGE: 15 FEET. BANKFULL STAGE: 9 FEET. FORECAST: THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE NUECES RIVER 11 MILES SOUTH OF TILDEN. LATEST STAGE: 21.3 FEET AT 9 PM THURSDAY. FLOOD STAGE: 14 FEET. BANKFULL STAGE: 11 FEET. FORECAST: MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. IT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IMPACT: AT 20 FEET...MAJOR FLOODING BELOW COTULLA TO BELOW TILDEN OCCURS...AND CUTS OFF EXTENSIVE PORTIONS OF THE FLOOD PLAIN...REQUIRING WHOLESALE EVACUATION OF LIVESTOCK FROM THE AREA. ROADS AND BRIDGES NEAR THE RIVER FLOOD SEVERELY. HUNTING CABINS...PUMP JACKS...TANK BATTERIES...IRRIGATION PUMPS AND ANY EQUIPMENT IN LOW AREAS NEAR THE RIVER FLOOD. FOR THE NUECES RIVER NEAR THREE RIVERS. LATEST STAGE: 40.2 FEET AT 9 PM THURSDAY. FLOOD STAGE: 25 FEET. BANKFULL STAGE: 20 FEET. FORECAST: MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. IMPACT: AT 40 FEET...THERE IS SEVERAL FEET OF WATER IN THE RIVER CREEK ACRES SUBDIVISION...FIVE MILES SOUTHEAST OF GEORGE WEST...FLOODING NUMEROUS HOMES. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING REACHES MILES FROM THE MAIN CHANNEL...FLOODING HOMES IN THE FLOOD PLAIN NEAR THREE RIVERS TO LAKE CORPUS CHRISTI. FOR THE NUECES RIVER AT MATHIS. LATEST STAGE: 33.3 FEET AT 9 PM THURSDAY. FLOOD STAGE: 25 FEET. BANKFULL STAGE: 16 FEET. FORECAST: MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. IT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE NUECES RIVER NEAR BLUNTZER. LATEST STAGE: 30.8 FEET AT 8 PM THURSDAY. FLOOD STAGE: 18 FEET. BANKFULL STAGE: 11 FEET. FORECAST: MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. IT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IMPACT: AT 31 FEET...MAJOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS ABOVE BLUNTZER TO CALALLEN...AND PRODUCES WIDESPREAD RESIDENTIAL FLOODING FOR DAYS OR WEEKS. LIVESTOCK IN THE FLOOD PLAIN ARE CUT OFF AND COULD DROWN. MANY SECONDARY AND PRIMARY ROADS AND LOW BRIDGES ARE FLOODED. FOR THE NUECES RIVER AT CALALLEN. LATEST STAGE: 11.4 FEET (ESTIMATED AT 7 PM THURSDAY). FORECAST: MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE A SLOW FALL...BUT WILL STAY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IMPACT: AT 9.5 FEET...MANY RESIDENTS ARE ISOLATED UP TO SIX WEEKS ON THE WEST BANK NEAR BLUNTZER. FOR THE FRIO RIVER AT TILDEN. LATEST STAGE: 12.5 FEET AT 9 PM THURSDAY. FLOOD STAGE: 22 FEET. BANKFULL STAGE: 12 FEET. FORECAST: THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE A VERY SLOW FALL...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE OSO CREEK NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. LATEST STAGE: 10.3 FEET AT 10 PM THURSDAY. FLOOD STAGE: 20.0 FEET. BANKFULL STAGE: 11.0 FEET. FORECAST: THE CREEK HAS FALLEN BELOW BANKFULL STAGE...BUT HEAVY RAINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE CREEK TO RISE TO BETWEEN 13 AND 15 FEET OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY AFFECT CREST FORECASTS. $$ BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND STAGE FORECASTS: FLD LATEST FORECAST 6 AM LST LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME FRI SAT SUN NUECES RIVER COTULLA 15 9.2 THU 09 PM 9.3 9.1 9.0 TILDEN 14 21.3 THU 09 PM 19.9 18.4 18.2 THREE RIVERS 25 40.2 THU 09 PM 37.3 33.8 29.4 MATHIS 25 33.3 THU 09 PM 30.8 28.6 23.4 BLUNTZER 18 30.8 THU 08 PM 29.7 28.7 27.5 CALALLEN 7 11.4 THU 07 PM 10.4 9.9 9.4 FRIO RIVER TILDEN 22 12.5 THU 09 PM 12.1 11.8 11.6 WGUS54 KCRP 200302 FFWCRP TXC025-391-409-200600- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 958 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BEE COUNTY IN TEXAS REFUGIO COUNTY IN TEXAS SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN TEXAS * UNTIL 100 AM CDT * AT 951 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM REFUGIO TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF TYNAN...TO MATHIS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. WTNT45 KNHC 200237 TCDAT5 HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002 THE LAST FIX FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE NEAR 2300 UTC REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 981 MB. ON ITS WAY HOME...A DROPSONDE LAUNCHED FROM THE PLANE REPORTED WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE RANGING FROM 90 TO 95 KNOTS. SINCE THEN... SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE INDICATED THAT ISIDORE HAS BECOME STRONGER AS INDICATED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS WHICH HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 AND 5.0. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 75 KNOTS AT THIS TIME WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 979 MB. THE NEXT PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA AT 0600 UTC. ALL PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. ISIDORE IS BECOMING A LARGE CYCLONE WITH AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW...FEEDER BANDS AND IS MOVING OVER THE HIGHER UPPER-OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OF THE BASIN. IN ADDITION...SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT 4 OF 5 REQUIRED PARAMETERS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION ARE MET. THEREFORE...ISIDORE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. A HINT OF THE EYE CAN BE OBSERVED FROM BOTH HAVANA AND KEY WEST RADARS. THESE OBSERVATIONS COMBINED WITH SATELLITE FIXES GIVE AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS...WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS 6 HOURS AGO. NO CHANGE IN TRACK IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND ISIDORE WILL BE SPENDING FRIDAY CROSSING THE WESTERNMOST PORTION OF CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN TO A HALT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. AT LONGER RANGE...ALL MODELS MOVE THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK EXCEPT THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL. THE LATTER MOVES THE HURRICANE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SOLUTION IS PROBABLY DUE TO A STRONG LOW WHICH THE MODEL DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. IT IS TEMPTING TO GO WITH THE NCEP MODEL SOLUTION SINCE THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY RELIABLE. BUT FOR NOW...IT IS BETTER TO KEEP THE HURRICANE WITH A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT BEYOND 48 HOURS UNTIL THE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES MORE CLEAR. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 21.0N 82.5W 75 KTS 12HR VT 20/1200Z 21.7N 83.5W 85 KTS 24HR VT 21/0000Z 22.5N 84.5W 95 KTS 36HR VT 21/1200Z 23.0N 85.5W 100 KTS 48HR VT 22/0000Z 23.5N 86.5W 105 KTS 72HR VT 23/0000Z 24.0N 87.0W 105 KTS WTNT45 KNHC 192055 TCDAT5 HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IN ISIDORE HAS FALLEN TO 984 MB...AND THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 76 KT. THE CREW ALSO ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 70 KT. ON THIS BASIS...THE ADVISORY WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING ISIDORE THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. ISIDORE HAS BEEN BASICALLY ON TRACK TODAY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8. THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...TAKING ISIDORE OVER WESTERN CUBA IN 24 HOURS. IN SPITE OF COPIOUS QUANTITIES OF DROPSONDES HAVING BEEN RELEASED IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF ISIDORE FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS BEYOND 48 HOURS. MUCH OF THIS DIVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE AVN HAS THE STRONGEST AND MOST WESTWARD VERSION OF THIS LOW...AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW MAY BE WHY THIS MODEL DRIVES ISIDORE SO STRONGLY SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR WHATEVER REASON...THE AVN ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES NOT TAKE ISIDORE AS FAR TO THE WEST AS THE AVN CONTROL. THE UKMET HAS FLIPPED FROM ITS EARLIER NORTHWARD TRACK...AND IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN. I REMAIN UNCONVINCED THAT THIS LOW WILL BE AS STRONG OR AS WEST AS THE AVN IS FORECASTING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR THE GUIDANCE TO SHIFT WESTWARD...I HAVE NUDGED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WESTWARD NEAR 72 HOURS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WHEN ISIDORE GETS INTO THE GULF...STEERING CURRENTS WILL BECOME VERY WEAK...AND IT WILL LIKELY MEANDER AND CAUSE MUCH ANXIETY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. NOW THAT ISIDORE HAS A WELL-FORMED CORE...THE PACE OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD INCREASE. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE IS GROWING. FOUR OUT OF FIVE OF THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION PREDICTORS ARE POSITIVE. THE ONLY SLIGHT NEGATIVE FACTOR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE INTERACTION WITH THE CUBAN LANDMASS. IT IS LIKELY THAT ISIDORE WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 20.6N 82.0W 65 KTS 12HR VT 20/0600Z 21.3N 83.1W 80 KTS 24HR VT 20/1800Z 22.4N 84.2W 85 KTS 36HR VT 21/0600Z 23.2N 85.0W 90 KTS 48HR VT 21/1800Z 23.5N 85.5W 100 KTS 72HR VT 22/1800Z 24.0N 86.5W 105 KTS WTNT45 KNHC 190859 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2002 ISIDORE IS STRENGTHENING. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 990 MB AND A GPS DROPSONDE INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A PARTIAL EYEWALL. IR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE CENTER. SINCE THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE IN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT ISIDORE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY. THE INTENSIFICATION TREND WILL PROBABLY BE TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED WHILE ISIDORE INTERACTS WITH LAND. HOWEVER SINCE THE TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA IS NOT THAT RUGGED...IT SHOULD CAUSE LITTLE IF ANY WEAKENING. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTER TO BE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT THIS MAY BE ONLY A WOBBLE. THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. DATA FROM THE G-IV JET SURVEILLANCE MISSION YESTERDAY EVENING SHOWED A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISIDORE...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE SHORT TERM...AND BRING ISIDORE NEAR WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. OVER THE ENSUING FEW DAYS...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST U.S. TODAY WILL HAVE ON ISIDORE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE DIVERSE. THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...GFS...SHOWS LITTLE EFFECT OF THE TROUGH AND TAKES ISIDORE WESTWARD...EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...AND CLOSER TO FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND QUITE SLOW AT DAYS 2 AND 3...REFLECTING GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ISIDORE MAY EVENTUALLY GO. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 20.0N 80.8W 55 KTS 12HR VT 19/1800Z 21.0N 81.8W 65 KTS 24HR VT 20/0600Z 22.2N 83.1W 75 KTS 36HR VT 20/1800Z 23.1N 84.4W 75 KTS 48HR VT 21/0600Z 23.5N 85.0W 85 KTS 72HR VT 22/0600Z 24.0N 86.0W 85 KTS WTNT45 KNHC 191503 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2002 A DROPSONDE JUST BEFORE 12Z REPORTED MEAN WINDS IN ITS LOWEST LAYERS OF 75 KT. ADJUSTMENT OF THIS OB TO THE SURFACE GIVE 59 KT...AND IS THE BASIS FOR AN INCREASE IN THE ADVISORY WINDS TO 60 KT. A MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 12Z SHOWED A PRETTY SOLID EYEWALL. THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM AT 18Z...AND THEY WILL PROBABLY FIND A HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE THIS EYEWALL HAS BEEN FORMING...BUT AN AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS IS 290/7. THE SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WNW-NW TRACK TOWARDS WESTERN CUBA. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ISIDORE SHOULD STALL AS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BYPASSES THE CYCLONE. THIS LEAVES ISIDORE IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF SOUTH OF 25N HAS AMPLE WARM WATER TO SIGNIFICANT DEPTHS...SO A STALL THERE WOULD NOT HINDER DEVELOPMENT. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS THE ALREADY EXPANDING WIND FIELD TO THE EAST OF ISIDORE...AND SO THERE IS A RISK OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE LOWER KEYS EVEN IF THE CENTER REMAINS ON TRACK. A WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED THERE LATER TODAY. DUST OFF THE CHAOS BUTTERFLIES OF MIT PROFESSOR ED LORENZ. BEYOND THREE DAYS...THERE IS COMPLETE DIVERGENCE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES SLIDE ALONG SOUTH OF THE MEAN TROUGH THAT SHOULD LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EACH MODEL HAS ITS OWN PERSONAL INTERACTION OF ISIDORE WITH A SHORT WAVE OF ITS CHOOSING...LEADING TO 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS RANGING FROM THE YUCATAN TO JACKSONVILLE. IT IS SIMPLY NOT POSSIBLE YET TO BE CONFIDENT IN WHICH EVOLUTION WILL TURN OUT TO BE CORRECT...AS VERY SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE POSITION OF ISIDORE THREE DAYS FROM NOW COULD TURN OUT TO BE VERY IMPORTANT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 20.0N 81.2W 60 KTS 12HR VT 20/0000Z 20.9N 82.2W 70 KTS 24HR VT 20/1200Z 22.0N 83.6W 75 KTS 36HR VT 21/0000Z 23.0N 84.5W 75 KTS 48HR VT 21/1200Z 23.5N 85.0W 85 KTS 72HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 86.0W 95 KTS WTNT45 KNHC 200840 TCDAT5 HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. THE CENTER CAN BE SEEN ON THE KEY WEST AND HAVANA RADARS AS WELL AS BEING TRACKED BY AIRCRAFT. THE 00Z NWS GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL SHOWS A BIT OF MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTH OF ISIDORE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CONTINUED SLOW MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD. THE AVIATION MODEL AND UKMET SHOW A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL AND NOGAPS SHOW A MUCH SLOWER WESTWARD MOTION. AFTER THAT...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO BE NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND WE WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE WITH WHETHER OR NOT THE NEXT TROUGH WILL PICK UP ISIDORE. IN ANY CASE ...ISIDORE WILL BE WITH US FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND WITH AN EVEN SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF ALMOST ALL THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. ONLY THE CANADIAN MODEL IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE LAST FIX FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE NEAR 08Z REPORTED 967 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.AND A RECENT DROPSONDE INDICATED THAT SURFACE WINDS ARE NEAR 90 KNOTS NEAR THE 12 NMI DIAMETER EYEWALL. AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL...THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS COULD BE TEMPORARILY HALTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH WESTERN CUBA. BUT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME BY 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE ARE ONLY 3 OUT OF 5 REQUIRED PARAMETERS MET FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION COMPARED TO 4 OUT OF 5 SIX HOURS AGO. ALSO THE SHIPS DIAGNOSED INITIAL VERTICAL SHEAR IS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM 14 KNOTS SIX HOURS AGO. THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS NEAR ITS POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. SO UNLESS THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS TOWARD FLORIDA ...THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE KEYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 25-KNOT RANGE AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL NOT BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING ON THIS ADVISORY. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 21.3N 83.3W 90 KTS 12HR VT 20/1800Z 22.0N 84.1W 100 KTS 24HR VT 21/0600Z 22.7N 85.2W 95 KTS 36HR VT 21/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W 100 KTS 48HR VT 22/0600Z 23.2N 86.8W 105 KTS 72HR VT 23/0600Z 23.5N 87.5W 105 KTS

WGUS54 KCRP 200302 FFWCRP TXC025-391-409-200600- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 958 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2002THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BEE COUNTYIN TEXAS REFUGIO COUNTY IN TEXAS SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN TEXAS * UNTIL 100 AM CDT* AT 951 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM REFUGIO TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF TYNAN...TO MATHIS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

WTNT45 KNHC 200237
TCDAT5
HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002

THE LAST FIX FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE NEAR 2300 UTC REPORTED A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 981 MB. ON ITS WAY HOME...A DROPSONDE LAUNCHED
FROM THE PLANE REPORTED WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE RANGING FROM 90 TO
95 KNOTS. SINCE THEN... SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE INDICATED THAT ISIDORE
HAS BECOME STRONGER AS INDICATED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS WHICH HAVE
INCREASED TO 4.5 AND 5.0. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 75 KNOTS
AT THIS TIME WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 979 MB. THE NEXT PLANE
WILL BE IN THE AREA AT 0600 UTC.

ALL PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. ISIDORE IS
BECOMING A LARGE CYCLONE WITH AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW...FEEDER BANDS
AND IS MOVING OVER THE HIGHER UPPER-OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OF THE
BASIN. IN ADDITION...SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT 4 OF 5 REQUIRED
PARAMETERS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION ARE MET. THEREFORE...ISIDORE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO.

A HINT OF THE EYE CAN BE OBSERVED FROM BOTH HAVANA AND KEY WEST
RADARS. THESE OBSERVATIONS COMBINED WITH SATELLITE FIXES GIVE AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 305 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS...WHICH IS BASICALLY THE
SAME AS 6 HOURS AGO. NO CHANGE IN TRACK IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND ISIDORE WILL BE SPENDING FRIDAY CROSSING THE WESTERNMOST
PORTION OF CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMES HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN TO A HALT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSE DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. AT LONGER RANGE...ALL
MODELS MOVE THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK EXCEPT THE
NCEP GLOBAL MODEL. THE LATTER MOVES THE HURRICANE SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SOLUTION IS PROBABLY DUE TO A
STRONG LOW WHICH THE MODEL DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. IT IS
TEMPTING TO GO WITH THE NCEP MODEL SOLUTION SINCE THIS MODEL HAS
BEEN VERY RELIABLE. BUT FOR NOW...IT IS BETTER TO KEEP THE HURRICANE
WITH A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT BEYOND 48 HOURS UNTIL THE STEERING
PATTERN BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     20/0300Z 21.0N 82.5W    75 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 21.7N 83.5W    85 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 22.5N 84.5W    95 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 23.0N 85.5W   100 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 23.5N 86.5W   105 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 24.0N 87.0W   105 KTS

WTNT45 KNHC 192055
TCDAT5
HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE IN ISIDORE HAS FALLEN TO 984 MB...AND THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE 76 KT.  THE CREW ALSO ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 70 KT.
ON THIS BASIS...THE ADVISORY WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING
ISIDORE THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.  
 
ISIDORE HAS BEEN BASICALLY ON TRACK TODAY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS 300/8.  THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...TAKING ISIDORE 
OVER WESTERN CUBA IN 24 HOURS.  IN SPITE OF COPIOUS QUANTITIES OF 
DROPSONDES HAVING BEEN RELEASED IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF ISIDORE FROM 
THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...THERE REMAINS 
CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS BEYOND 48 
HOURS.  MUCH OF THIS DIVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE 
FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW BETWEEN 
BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS.  THE AVN HAS THE STRONGEST AND MOST 
WESTWARD VERSION OF THIS LOW...AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE 
LOW MAY BE WHY THIS MODEL DRIVES ISIDORE SO STRONGLY SOUTHWESTWARD 
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR WHATEVER REASON...THE AVN 
ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES NOT TAKE ISIDORE AS FAR TO THE WEST AS THE AVN 
CONTROL.  THE UKMET HAS FLIPPED FROM ITS EARLIER NORTHWARD 
TRACK...AND IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN.  I REMAIN 
UNCONVINCED THAT THIS LOW WILL BE AS STRONG OR AS WEST AS THE AVN IS 
FORECASTING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR THE GUIDANCE 
TO SHIFT WESTWARD...I HAVE NUDGED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WESTWARD 
NEAR 72 HOURS.  THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WHEN ISIDORE GETS INTO THE 
GULF...STEERING CURRENTS WILL BECOME VERY WEAK...AND IT WILL LIKELY 
MEANDER AND CAUSE MUCH ANXIETY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. 
 
NOW THAT ISIDORE HAS A WELL-FORMED CORE...THE PACE OF 
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD INCREASE.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL 
ESTABLISHED AND THE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE IS GROWING.  FOUR OUT OF 
FIVE OF THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION PREDICTORS ARE POSITIVE.  
THE ONLY SLIGHT NEGATIVE FACTOR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE 
INTERACTION WITH THE CUBAN LANDMASS.  IT IS LIKELY THAT ISIDORE WILL 
BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 20.6N  82.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 21.3N  83.1W    80 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 22.4N  84.2W    85 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 23.2N  85.0W    90 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 23.5N  85.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 24.0N  86.5W   105 KTS

WTNT45 KNHC 190859
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2002
 
ISIDORE IS STRENGTHENING.  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 990 MB AND A GPS DROPSONDE INDICATES
THAT SURFACE WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A
PARTIAL EYEWALL.  IR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
CENTER.  SINCE THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE IN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...IT IS VERY
LIKELY THAT ISIDORE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.  THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND WILL PROBABLY BE TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED WHILE
ISIDORE INTERACTS WITH LAND.  HOWEVER SINCE THE TERRAIN OF WESTERN
CUBA IS NOT THAT RUGGED...IT SHOULD CAUSE LITTLE IF ANY WEAKENING.

THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTER TO BE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT THIS MAY BE ONLY A WOBBLE.  THE SMOOTHED
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  DATA FROM THE G-IV JET
SURVEILLANCE MISSION YESTERDAY EVENING SHOWED A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISIDORE...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE SHORT TERM...AND BRING
ISIDORE NEAR WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. OVER THE ENSUING FEW
DAYS...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE LARGE
AMPLITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST U.S. TODAY 
WILL HAVE ON ISIDORE.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE 
DIVERSE.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...GFS...SHOWS LITTLE EFFECT OF THE 
TROUGH AND TAKES ISIDORE WESTWARD...EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  THE U.K. MET. 
OFFICE AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...AND CLOSER TO 
FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 
GUIDANCE...AND QUITE SLOW AT DAYS 2 AND 3...REFLECTING GREAT 
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ISIDORE MAY EVENTUALLY GO.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0900Z 20.0N  80.8W    55 KTS
12HR VT     19/1800Z 21.0N  81.8W    65 KTS
24HR VT     20/0600Z 22.2N  83.1W    75 KTS
36HR VT     20/1800Z 23.1N  84.4W    75 KTS
48HR VT     21/0600Z 23.5N  85.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     22/0600Z 24.0N  86.0W    85 KTS
 
WTNT45 KNHC 191503
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2002
 
A DROPSONDE JUST BEFORE 12Z REPORTED MEAN WINDS IN ITS LOWEST LAYERS 
OF 75 KT.  ADJUSTMENT OF THIS OB TO THE SURFACE GIVE 59 KT...AND IS 
THE BASIS FOR AN INCREASE IN THE ADVISORY WINDS TO 60 KT.  A 
MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 12Z SHOWED A PRETTY SOLID EYEWALL.  THE NEXT 
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM AT 18Z...AND THEY WILL 
PROBABLY FIND A HURRICANE.  

THE CYCLONE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE THIS 
EYEWALL HAS BEEN FORMING...BUT AN AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE LAST 6 TO 
12 HOURS IS 290/7.  THE SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON A WNW-NW TRACK TOWARDS WESTERN CUBA.  NEAR THE END OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD ISIDORE SHOULD STALL AS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY 
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BYPASSES THE CYCLONE.  THIS LEAVES ISIDORE IN 
A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF SOUTH OF 25N HAS AMPLE WARM WATER TO 
SIGNIFICANT DEPTHS...SO A STALL THERE WOULD NOT HINDER DEVELOPMENT.  
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS THE ALREADY EXPANDING WIND FIELD TO THE 
EAST OF ISIDORE...AND SO THERE IS A RISK OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS IN THE LOWER KEYS EVEN IF THE CENTER REMAINS ON TRACK.  A 
WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED THERE LATER TODAY.

DUST OFF THE CHAOS BUTTERFLIES OF MIT PROFESSOR ED LORENZ.  BEYOND 
THREE DAYS...THERE IS COMPLETE DIVERGENCE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AS 
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES SLIDE ALONG SOUTH OF THE 
MEAN TROUGH THAT SHOULD LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  EACH MODEL HAS 
ITS OWN PERSONAL INTERACTION OF ISIDORE WITH A SHORT WAVE OF ITS 
CHOOSING...LEADING TO 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS RANGING FROM THE  
YUCATAN TO JACKSONVILLE.  IT IS SIMPLY NOT POSSIBLE YET TO BE 
CONFIDENT IN WHICH EVOLUTION WILL TURN OUT TO BE CORRECT...AS VERY 
SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE POSITION OF ISIDORE THREE DAYS FROM NOW COULD 
TURN OUT TO BE VERY IMPORTANT. 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/1500Z 20.0N  81.2W    60 KTS
12HR VT     20/0000Z 20.9N  82.2W    70 KTS
24HR VT     20/1200Z 22.0N  83.6W    75 KTS
36HR VT     21/0000Z 23.0N  84.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     21/1200Z 23.5N  85.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     22/1200Z 24.5N  86.0W    95 KTS

SHORT TERM FORECAST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

FLOOD STATEMENT

FLOOD WARNING

FLOOD WATCH